Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Emmys ceremonies from film awards editor Clayton Davis. Following history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Emmy predictions are updated regularly with the current year's list of contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. The eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and is subject to change.
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2021 EMMYS PREDICTIONS:
OUTSTANDING TELEVISION MOVIE
UPDATED: Aug 19, 2021
AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY: Another late-breaker, “Oslo” recounts the true-life back-channel negotiations of the pivotal 1990s Oslo Peace Accords between Israel and the Palestinian Liberation Organization, feels incredibly timely. With the star power of Ruth Wilson and Andrew Scott partnered with HBO’s savvy campaign tactics, the Bartlett Sher feature could scrape by the other movies.
One of two films from Prime Video, the film premiered at the 2020 Sundance Film Festival before getting picked up and dabbling in and out of television and film recognition in its precursor run. Submitted for film categories (comedy or musical) at the Globes, the shutout continued at SAG, failing to garner a nomination on the television side. The Tessa Thompson and Nnamdi Asomugha vehicle could be a default selection for voters with just a single mention. Instead, they may want to make a statement for future films that choose to be indecisive in the awards space.
You can’t count out Dolly Parton in any visual media or musical art form. Pair that with the powerful backing of Netflix, in the midst of a very passion-less crop of contenders, then you can find the now four-time Emmy nominee, get her winning moment on stage. With multiple Grammy Awards, she’s also one of the few artists nominated for all the major awards, which could put her halfway to EGOT status. Who’s going to deny the world such a treat? The TV Academy very much could but what helps is that the Debbie Allen film is just one of two in this category that has a second nomination (it’s nominated in choreography), and that could help a smidge. However, there are more “serious” films in the running, and the other multiple nominees is the period piece “Oslo.”
From beloved news anchor Robin Roberts, her name likely did wonders for the biopic feature that tells the story of the New Orleans-born crooner Mahalia Jackson. Definitely, one of the higher quality ventures of a “Lifetime movie,” Danielle Brooks’ snubbed portrayal in the Kenny Leon-directed film only managed this single nomination, which many felt was vastly undervalued by the Television Academy. Nevertheless, it could present an all-in vote from a pocket of voters that want to ensure the film gets some type of recognition. It’s the dark horse of the category.
One other Amazon Prime Video feature, which had a minimal buzz on the circuit but was likely helped by Oscar and Emmy winning writer and director Alan Ball, and the sheer star power of Paul Bettany, Sophia Lillis, the late Lois Smith, Margo Martindale and Stephen Root. Its problem, that like its fellow network counterpart “Sylvie’s Love,” some critics groups recognized it in their film awards – such as Indiana Film Journalists and San Diego Film Critics. That muddying of the water can have drastic consequences in the race to win an Emmy, let alone get nominated. Just ask Steve McQueen’s “Small Axe.” Its nomination is its reward.
The viewing platform for Emmy nominees opens on Aug. 13, with final-round voting, beginning on Aug. 19 at 9:00 am PT until Aug. 30 at 10:00 pm PT.
Check out the full rankings of the category’s nominees in the chart below.
ALL SUBMISSIONS & RANKINGS:
AWARDS CATEGORY HISTORY (Best TV Movie)
The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known simply as the Emmys, is television’s most prestigious artistic award. There are many records held for both wins and nominations in the near eight decades.
This category has continually undergone rule changes and inceptions over the years, making it misleading to account for significant historical wins and nominations. “Black Mirror” is a series with the most wins at three while “Sherlock” has the most nominations at four.
On the network front, HBO has the most wins in this category with 22 while NBC is second with nine. Netflix is the first and only streamer to have won this category – for three consecutive years with “Black Mirror.”
2021 Primetime Emmy Awards Predictions
About the Primetime Emmy Awards (Emmys)
The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, is given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards recognize excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements) and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors and various artisans and executives.
- The 73rd Emmy Awards are scheduled to air on Sunday, Sept. 19 at 8:00 pm est on CBS and on-demand on sister streamer Paramount Plus.