Friday, March 31, 2023

Fantasy Football ADP Report: Sleepers Marquez Callaway & Javonte Williams rising, Joe Burrow & David Johnson among biggest draft fallers

Average draft position (ADP) fluctuation is a part of fantasy football draft season. Everyone who completes drafts (and sometimes mock drafts) has an influence on ADP. Offseason buzz, injuries, and preseason performances can affect ADP slightly or significantly. If you’ve been working with a month-old cheat sheet, you need to adjust some of your rankinkgs and expectations for when players will be drafted by monitoring trends in ADP.

Over the past seven days, Marquez Callaway and Javonte Williams have seen bumps in their respective ADPs, while Joe Burrow and David Johnson have been on downward trends. Below, we’ll provide explanations for their changes and list more notable risers and fallers.

DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: Ultimate 2021 Cheat Sheet

This article uses Underdog Fantasy ADP data and is based on half-point PPR formats. All changes referenced in ADP are over the past seven days (Aug. 11-18).

Check back weekly for a new Fantasy Football ADP report after another slate of preseason games, injury reports, and camp buzz.

Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker | Top 200

Fantasy Football ADP Report: Risers and Fallers

QB Risers: Justin Fields, Bears

The fantasy community finally got to see Fields in action in Week 1 of the preseason. His ADP has moved up 7.5 spots, and he’s already being declared the greatest Bears quarterback of all time (well, maybe not). But he arguably had the best debut of any of the rookie QBs. He had an immediate impact and impressive stat line (14-for-20, 142 yards; passing TD, 33 rushing yards, rushing TD). Even with the rise, his current ADP sets him at QB16. If he continues to impress and/or is named the starter prior to Week 1 of the regular season, his ADP will likely blast off. 

More QB Risers: Carson Wentz, Colts; Trey Lance, 49ers; Drew Lock, Broncos

Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker | Top 200

QB Fallers: Joe Burrow, Bengals

Burrow is getting negative attention out of Bengals camp, and fantasy owners are taking notice. He’s fallen 5.8 spots in the past week and is being drafted behind Trey Lance, Ryan Tannehill, and Matthew Stafford, among others. After a significant knee injury, it’s not totally surprising Burrow would look rusty in camp, and he’s apparently not trusting the strength of his knee. This indicates less rushing upside, at least early, and he’s probably going to be less likely to stand in the pocket and take hits. There are still enough weapons in the Bengals offense to be optomistic about Burrow’s season-long outlook, and right now, it doesn’t look like you need to reach for him if you want him. 

More QB Fallers: Deshaun Watson, Texans; Daniel Jones, Giants; Cam Newton, Patriots

Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Each team

RB Risers: Javonte Williams, Broncos

Williams got a small opportunity to show what he can do in the Broncos’ preseason opener. He rushed just five times for 29 yards, but his burst and juice were on display. Additionally, Melvin Gordon is reportedly dealing with a groin injury — worrisome news for a 28-year-old running back. These are some of the reasons Williams has climbed up 3.5 spots and sits at the RB24 spot per ADP.

More RB Risers: Phillip Lindsay, Texans; Malcolm Brown, Dolphins; Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots; Xavier Jones, Rams; Devin Singletary, Bills

Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker | Overall

RB Fallers: David Johnson, Texans

It seems like forever ago that Johnson was in the running for the No. 1 overall pick in fantasy drafts, but even after a “bounce-back” season last year, he’s falling into the depths of ADP. He’s the biggest faller among RBs in the last week, nosediving 10.7 spots overall. As stated straight from the mouth of David Johnson, he’s going to see a reduced role in 2021 after the addition of Phillip Lindsay. He sits at RB46, which in reality, makes him a cheap flex option during bye weeks.

More RB Fallers: Myles Gaskin, Dolphins; Latavius Murray, Saints; Boston Scott, Eagles

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WR Risers: Marquez Callaway, Saints

Callaway is the biggest riser regardless of position over the past week. He’s risen 21.9 spots and is trending to pass teammate Tre’Quan Smith soon. Callaway was targeted early and often in the Saints’ Week 1 preseason game, netting three catches for 61 yards in limited action. With Michael Thomas’ ankle surgery raising questions about his fantasy prospects, Callaway stands to be very busy if Thomas is unavailable or unproductive. He was already one of our sleeper WRs before the Thomas news, but the fantasy community is quickly awakening to his fantasy profile.

More WR Risers: K.J. Hamler, Broncos; Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions; Quez Watkins, Eagles; Terrace Marshall Jr., Panthers

Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight endD/ST

WR Fallers: Christian Kirk, Cardinals

Kirk’s ADP has fallen 5.2 spots over the past week, and Rondale Moore’s debut has everything to do with it. It’s not Kirk’s fault that Moore flashed, but it may be an indication that Moore will surpass Kirk on the Cardinals depth chart. Put simply, fantasy owners draft for upside, especially in the later rounds. Kirk’s upside is capped by Moore, while Moore’s upside is mainly capped by injury.

More WR Fallers: Rashod Bateman, Ravens; John Brown, Raiders; Breshad Perriman, Lions; Nico Collins, Texans

Snake Draft | Auction | Best Ball | Dynasty/Keeper | IDP

TE Risers: Jonnu Smith, Patriots

Neither Smith nor Hunter Henry are participating in a joint practice with the Eagles, but Henry’s injury history is more of a concern. If Henry were to sustain an injury that causes him to miss time, Smith would potentially be the No.1 option in the entire passing offense. Mac Jones’ impressive showing probably has something to do with Smith’s 7.4-spot uptick, as well, but with Henry not likely to miss time as of now, Smith’s ADP may come down again a bit.

More TE Risers: Zach Ertz, Eagles; Logan Thomas, Washington; Jared Cook, Chargers

Mock Draft Simulator | Position battles | Bye weeks | Best team names

TE Fallers: Blake Jarwin/Dalton Schultz, Cowboys

Both Cowboys’ tight ends are falling, and it’s pretty clear why. No one knows who will get more work, and they are causing each other to slide down draft boards. With the uncertainly of the depth chart at an already scarce and unpredictable position, it’s tough to confidently spend draft capital on either one. Both have fallen about three spots, but Jarwin sits at TE24 while Schultz comes in at TE32.

More TE Fallers: Anthony Firkser, Titans; Hunter Henry, Patriots; Adam Trautman, Saints


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